Greg Elliott
The originator of the Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis, a theory of evolution applied to symbolic systems. Self-described as an AI safety researcher, game theorist, systems theorist and evolutionary biology researcher. William Rees cites him by name and adopts his argument as one of the load-bearing claims of the overshoot case.
- Author of The Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis, published as a book in 2026 and serialized on his Substack, which he launched in May 2026.
- The hypothesis reached a wide audience through The Great Simplification, Nate Hagens's platform, in August 2026, and through an appearance on The 10,000 Year Problem podcast in September 2026.
- William Rees cites him by name in his October 2026 OVERSHOOT interview, in the segment on psychopathic selection beginning at 26:07. That citation is how we found him.
- He describes his own method as game theory and systems theory applied to evolutionary questions, and writes in the formal idiom: definitions, matrices, numbered sections.
- He is not a peer-reviewed academic, and we found no institutional affiliation. That matters for how much weight to put on the frame, and it is why the caveats further down this page are longer than usual.
The work
The symbolic mediation matrix
The foundationThe move the whole argument rests on
Humans still need food, shelter, energy and cooperation. What changed is the environment through which those needs get met. Access now runs through money, employment, debt, markets, credentials, law, bureaucracies and platforms.
He lays it out as three columns: a biological requirement, the symbolic mediator, the material consequence. Food is mediated by income, which controls access to nutrition. Shelter is mediated by income, debt and credit, which controls access to housing. The middle column is largely made of constructs. The bottom column is entirely real.
That is the hinge. Once symbolic success controls access to biological outcomes, the symbolic system is an environment, and selection starts operating inside it.
Symbolic fitness and symbolic selection
The mechanismWhat the environment actually rewards
Symbolic fitness is the ability to acquire, keep and control consequential symbols. In a corporation those are profit, capital and market share. In electoral politics, votes and legitimacy. In employment, income and credentials. On a platform, attention and data. In the financial system, credit and asset control. In a nation state, GDP and monetary capacity.
The tokens change by game. The logic does not. And the crucial point is that what gets selected is not only people: it is also traits, strategies, games, institutions and objective functions. That is why the problem outlives whoever is currently in charge, and why voting out one set of people changes so little.
He is careful about the ancestral comparison. Small, tightly coupled groups meant repeated interaction, reputation that followed you, attributable harm, possible retaliation and persistent social memory. He does not call that a golden age. He calls it a set of real constraints on exploitation. Scale and abstraction remove every one of them.
Dependency, compression and entrapment
The trap, part oneHow a free person loses their options one at a time
Housing requires income. Income requires employment. Employment requires compliance with institutional rules. Losing employment threatens debt. Debt threatens housing. Health care, credentials and status all depend on staying in.
No single link is coercion. That is the point. Access draws you in, dependency raises the cost of getting the thing elsewhere, and investment in the form of debt, credentials and specialization raises the cost of switching. Then compression narrows the range of viable strategies, and finally entrapment, where the loss from leaving exceeds the loss from staying.
His sentence for it is the best thing in the paper: the individual may remain formally free while their realizable strategy space contracts. Formal freedom can remain while strategically realizable freedom disappears.
Loss-dominant equilibria
The trap, part twoThe idea worth carrying away
A system does not have to benefit most of its participants. It only has to make leaving cost more than staying. Written as a condition: the loss from participating is less than the loss from exiting.
The worker despises the game and needs the wage. The firm sees the ecological damage and loses market share if it pays to fix it while rivals do not. The politician sees a destructive incentive and loses office by refusing it. The citizen objects to debt dependence and cannot get housing without debt.
Which produces the conclusion that dissolves most of the moralizing about this: people can rationally reproduce a game they collectively want to escape. Nobody in that sentence needs to be stupid, bought or beaten down.
Where the argument is contested
A frame that explains everything
ScopeThe strongest objection to the whole thing
The loss-dominance mechanism is sharp and testable. You can look at a situation, price the exit, and check whether the behavior follows. That part earns its keep.
The larger claim, that symbolic selection is now the dominant driver of human evolution, is a far bigger assertion. A frame broad enough to explain institutional decay, platform dynamics, political failure and personal burnout is also broad enough to be unfalsifiable, and that is exactly the shape of theory that flatters the person holding it. Use the mechanism. Be slower with the cosmology.
The psychopathy framing invites a cheap reading
How it gets usedRead him, not his excerpters
His own text is more careful than the headline. The claim is about what the system selects for, which is a statement about structure. It is very easy to hear it as a claim that the people running things are personally disordered, which is a statement about individuals, and which requires no uncomfortable thinking about your own participation.
That cheap version is more satisfying, travels faster, and is the version that gets dismissed. If you take one thing from this page, take the structural reading. It is the one that also applies to you.
Where this page is thin
One author, self-published, no peer review. We found no institutional affiliation, no academic appointment and no publication record outside his own Substack and book. The idea has reach because a professor emeritus adopted it, and reach is not the same as scrutiny. Cite him as a theorist rather than as evidence.
No portrait. We found no photograph of him we could confirm was licensed for reuse, so the frame stays empty rather than filled with a guess.
Biographical detail is genuinely thin. Even the birth year is not recorded here because we could not verify one. What is solid is the argument, its dates of publication, and its citation by Rees.
Why he is on this page
This farm is a slow attempt to shorten its own list of dependencies. We do not have a mortgage on the ground. We grow some of our own calories. We are building water storage so the well pump is not the only thing standing between us and a dry week. All of that is the same project: buy back options.
Elliott supplies the reason that project is harder than arithmetic. Every dependency you remove has a cost, and the cost arrives before the benefit. That is why people talk themselves out of it, and why the talk sounds so reasonable on the night you have it.
His formulation of domination is the useful one for us. Domination arrives as a shortening list of alternatives. It does not announce itself. That gives you something you can actually check: not how free do I feel, but how many doors are still open, and what would it cost to walk through each one. We use that on land, on employers and on suppliers.
The debt to him is specific. Our own argument, that a household's resilience is the length of its dependency list, is his loss-dominance condition measured from the other end.
Start here: Greg's Substack.
Sources
- Elliott, G. (2026). The Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis, Substack, September 2026. The nine-section statement, and the source of the matrices and the quoted phrase on freedom and strategy space.
- Elliott, G. (2026). How Dark Triad Cognition Solves Problems in Symbolic Systems and the Resulting Games that Emerge, Substack, August 2026.
- Elliott, G. (2026). When Psychopathic Traits Become Institutional Properties: the Symbolic Selection Mechanism of Institutional Mirroring, Substack, August 2026.
- Elliott, G. (2026). The Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis, book. Self-published.
- The Great Simplification, Nate Hagens, August 2026. Where the argument reached its largest audience.
- OVERSHOOT podcast, The Collapse of Modernity with William E. Rees, October 2026, segment at 26:07. Rees's citation of Elliott by name.